See all forum discussions about Green Commons
 Subscribe to new posts about Green Commons Post a new question aboutGreen Commons

Forum discussion

Green Commons

energy modeling with future weather files

Profile picture for user rachelle
Simona Fischer
Director of Sustainable Practice and Associate
MSR Design
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Does anyone have a good recommendation for getting started with energy modeling with future weather files? We use a combination of Sefaira and Climate Studio, but open to suggestions. Even just links on how to approach this for making good recommendations to clients. Thanks in advance.

0
Post a reply

You rely on LEEDuser. Can we rely on you?

LEEDuser is supported by our premium members, not by advertisers.

Go premium for $15.95  »

Profile picture for user cory.duggin
Cory Duggin
Senior Energy Wizard
TLC Engineering Solutions
LEEDuser Premium Member
44 thumbs up

Fri, 09/06/2024 - 20:49

We use WeatherShift future weather files.  They are provided in the EPW format, so you should be able to use them in most tools.
Profile picture for user j.rusk
Jack Rusk
Climate Strategist
EHDD
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/06/2024 - 22:08

Hey! WeatherShift uses a technique called “morphing” to generate future EPWs. This is the most accessible technique, but has some shortcomings as well. There are some open access approaches to morphing, which EHDD used to morph every EPW in the US. We were also a little annoyed that WeatherShift wasn’t free. Here’s a link to the complete library of files (for TMY3 and TMYx), a description of known shortcomings of ‘morphed’ files, and some other data we put together to explain some of the behind-the-scenes calculations: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I-hp6cB-cO25o9BX0tUIapW2MvIdR__SV9TE94-_3fg/edit?usp=sharing As we note at the header of the doc linked above, there are some great datasets out there for the US which use more robust techniques than morphing. You’ll see then linked at the top and bottom of the doc. Enjoy ~ Jack Rusk Director of Climate Strategy, Associate Pier 1 The Embarcadero, Bay 2 San Francisco, CA 94111 +1 415-214-7225 [cid:G_190118_N24_webview_bb0303a9-c805-4097-ac97-3ab99950504f.jpg] From: Cory Du
Profile picture for user mikef
Mike Fowler
Sustainability Integration Leader, Associate Principal
MITHUN
LEEDuser Basic Member
1 thumbs up

Sat, 09/07/2024 - 00:55

Future weather files that we are excited to try out soon are fTMY files. The data set, which came out in late December 2023, contains future TMY files for the 3,281 counties in the contiguous US for the years 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, and 2080-2099. The files were reported to have integrated a multi-scenario extereme weather simulator algorithm which will provide localized conditions of extreme weather including increased frequency and intensity. If someone finds out that is not correct please let me know.

Here is a link to find and download the future weather files:
States in the East and South at https://zenodo.org/records/10425621 
States in the Midwest and West at https://zenodo.org/records/10425146 

Thanks,

Mike Fowler, AIA, CPHC, LEED AP
Associate Principal, Sustainability Integration Leader | Seattle
Mithun 


   
Profile picture for user alaxo
Ariane Laxo
Sustainability Director
HGA
LEEDuser Premium Member
3 thumbs up

Mon, 09/09/2024 - 14:26

For Minnesota projects: we are working with CSBR and the Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership (MCAP) to make available TMY files (and IDF curves) with the dynamical downscaled climate projection models MCAP has for the state of Minnesota. Likely delivery (data along with workflows and trainings) throughout 2025. In the meantime, for any Minnesota projects we are using the MCAP data set to do scenario planning & stress testing of our designs using historic and/or WeatherShift data: https://climate.umn.edu/MN-CliMAT
Profile picture for user rachelle
Simona Fischer
Director of Sustainable Practice and Associate
MSR Design
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Wed, 09/11/2024 - 15:37

Thanks all for these great resources! On Mon, Sep 9, 2024 at 9:28 AM Ariane Laxo wrote:
Profile picture for user jiewei.li
Jiewei Li
Building Science Specialist
Goody Clancy
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Wed, 09/11/2024 - 21:15

I recommend the same source that @Mike Fowler mentioned, but I’d like to clarify some details about future weather data versus extreme weather data.   The future weather dataset, recently published by ORNL researchers through a joint project with ANL, ORNL, and SNL, is an excellent resource. You can find more details about the project here: DOE Report on Future Weather Data. We first learned about this dataset at the SimBuild conference earlier this year after speaking with an ORNL researcher. Since the project hasn't been widely advertised, it's still relatively underutilized. However, it follows a well-established methodology (similar to <CCWeatherGen>) to create the dataset. The most impressive part is that it covers all U.S. counties, providing future weather data under four different carbon scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5). This saves a lot of time and effort for other modelers and researchers. You can access the datasets here: Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) US Weather Files.   In our understanding, these datasets mentioned above do not include extreme weather data. They are similar to the typical weather files we often use, where extreme years are excluded. Essentially, they represent a selection of typical (non-extreme) months' data, but projected for future years.   For extreme weather data, @Daniel Villa from SNL has developed a tool called MEWS (Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator) as part of the joint project. More information is available on their GitHub page: MEWS GitHub. This tool is designed to generate extreme weather EPW files based on a typical EPW file and is particularly useful for heat wave analysis. However, according to Daniel, they are currently seeking funding to add scenario-based heat wave capabilities to the tool.   At Goody Clancy, we've begun using these datasets in our design process and research study. Based on our initial validation, they are reliable and highly informative.  We are happy to talk about it and share our initial findings if anyone is interested.   Jiewei
Profile picture for user rachelle
Simona Fischer
Director of Sustainable Practice and Associate
MSR Design
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Wed, 09/11/2024 - 22:00

Hi Jiewei, Thanks for this clarification. I would definitely be interested to hear about your findings. Would a zoom call work? My email is simona@msrdesign.com On Wed, Sep 11, 2024 at 4:17 PM Jiewei Li wrote:
Profile picture for user bdunn
Bryna Dunn
Vice President
Moseley Architects
LEEDuser Premium Member
10 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 12:56

Hi Jiewie & Simona, I am also very interested in learning more about this topic.  Would love to also be part of a call, if possible, where I can learn more.  bdunn@moseleyarchitects.com
Profile picture for user paulinesouza
Pauline Souza
Partner, Sustainability Director
WRNS Studio
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 14:57

Same pls! psouza@wrnsstudio.com
Profile picture for user j.guarin
Juan Guarin
Perkins Eastman
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 15:09

Hi Jiewei, This is extremely interesting! I would also be interested in learning more about your findings. Happy to join a Zoom call; my email is: j.guarin@perkinseastman.com Thanks!
Profile picture for user skim_1
Seonhee Kim
Director of Sustainability
Design Collective
LEEDuser Basic Member
19 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 15:10

same here!  skim@designcollective.com
Profile picture for user cory.duggin
Cory Duggin
Senior Energy Wizard
TLC Engineering Solutions
LEEDuser Premium Member
44 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 15:10

Me too.  cory.duggin@tlc-eng.com
Profile picture for user ysaoji
Yogesh Saoji
Planning and Urban Design Leader
DLR Group
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 15:57

Thank you for all the great shares and conversations in this chat. Hi Jiewei: Love to be part of the future call as well. Using these future models for "all things" scenario planning including energy is also my interest.  ysaoji@dlrgroup.com
Profile picture for user beth.lavelle
Beth Lavelle
Sustainability Strategist
SmithGroup
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 15:57

I'd love to loop in my climate analytics team if a zoom call forms - beth.lavelle@smithgroup.com 

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 16:21

We have been working with the fTMY files to assess impacts to overall energy performance, and more importantly, the equipment sizing itself to deal with higher future peak cooling loads. If you are in the NYC area, I am leading a session at the ASHRAE Decarbonization Conference on Oct 23 to discuss the topic and present results of modeling using the fTMY files.  (https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/conferences/specialty%20conferences/2024%20decarb/ny-decarb-program.pdf)
Default Avatar
Jim Hanford
The Miller Hull Partnership
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 16:58

I would join as well. Thanks. jhanford@millerhull.com Jim Hanford, FAIA, LEED AP BD+C, Principal The Miller Hull Partnership, LLP
Profile picture for user vikram.sami
Vikram Sami
Director of Building Performance
Olson Kundig
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 18:13

I'd be interested in listening in too. We've just started looking at these files now.  One thing I am wondering - (for those of you who have been using these files) - how is it impacting your design decisions? Is it leading you to do something that you wouldn't have done otherwise?  -Vikram
Profile picture for user lgunther
Lauren Gunther
Director of Sustainability
DiMella Shaffer
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 18:40

I’d be interested in joining, as well. Thank you, Lauren lgunther@dimellashaffer.com F

Thu, 09/12/2024 - 19:10

hi all, I would be interested to join such call as well (ccerezodavila@kpf.com). We have used morphed files in their multiple generations for years in the office, for both indoor thermal loads and outdoor thermal comfort modeling. Original using the CCWorldWeather generator from the UK, and later WeatherShift for a while, but WeatherShift base GCM became obsolete, and we have been more recently using the same modeling method that @JackRusk mentioned above.Have not tried the ORNL US specific files yet but they sound like a great resource!
Profile picture for user jiewei.li
Jiewei Li
Building Science Specialist
Goody Clancy
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 00:24

Hi all, It’s exciting to see so much interest in this topic. We’ll follow up soon with a survey link to find a suitable meeting time for everyone in the next couple of weeks. We’ll also post an update in this thread once the link is ready. Looking forward to continuing the conversation. Jiewei
Profile picture for user krkh
Kritika Kharbanda
Head of Sustainability (Global)
Henning Larsen Architects
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 07:00

Please loop me in as well! Thank you so much: krkh@henninglarsen.com  
Profile picture for user lkoehl
Louis Koehl
Director of Sustainable Design
Handel Architects
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 13:16

Me as well - thank you lkoehl@handelarchitects.com
Profile picture for user anash
Alison Nash
Associate, Sustainabilty Coordinator
Sasaki
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 14:29

Include me, too! I have some experience to share for energy modeling for various project types, using updated precipitation projections for stormwater, and also using the data for themal comfort outdoor modeling in planning or large scale site design projects. 
<anash@sasaki.com>
Alison Nash
Profile picture for user ksector
Kate Sector
Design Performance Manager
Lake|Flato Architects
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 14:53

Hi all, I'd like to join too with my coworker Miguel if a call ends up being formed. Can you add ksector@lakeflato.com and melizardo@lakeflato.com Thanks!
Profile picture for user jsilliker_1
Jared Silliker
Senior Sustainability Strategist
NBBJ
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 15:41

Please include me: jsilliker@nbbj.com (and I may bring one other colleague) THANKS!
Profile picture for user heather_1
Heather DeGrella
Sustainable Design Director, Associate Principal
Opsis Architecture
LEEDuser Premium Member
54 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 17:14

I would like to join – heather@opsisarch.com I am interested to hear how accurately future weather files are able to predict increased air moisture, how well modeling addresses thermal comfort related to increase in humidity, etc. Heather DeGrella AIA, LEED Fellow, Fitwel Ambassador, LFA | (she / her / hers) Associate Principal | Sustainable Design Director Registered architect in Oregon [cid:opsis_rgb_blue_1c67de12-b325-4318-95e7-0704d8f48949.png] Architecture, Interiors & Planning 975 SE Main St., Portland, OR 97214 o 503.525.9511 d 503.943.6228 w opsisarch.com F
Profile picture for user jiewei.li
Jiewei Li
Building Science Specialist
Goody Clancy
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 21:52

I’ve sent out a meeting schedule poll to those whose email addresses I could find in the thread. If you haven’t received the poll, please let me know. Feel free to forward the poll to your team members if they'd like to join the discussion. For anyone who would like to participate, you're welcome to leave a post in the thread or contact me directly, and I’ll make sure you get the meeting schedule poll.
Profile picture for user j.rusk
Jack Rusk
Climate Strategist
EHDD
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 22:12

Hey! I’d love to be added to this meeting. Very excited :) Jack Rusk Director of Climate Strategy, Associate Pier 1 The Embarcadero, Bay 2 San Francisco, CA 94111 +1 415-214-7225 [cid:G_190118_N24_webview_bb0303a9-c805-4097-ac97-3ab99950504f.jpg] F
Profile picture for user dklug
David Klug
Mechanical Engineering Leader
Harley Ellis Devereaux (HED)
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 22:14

I would like to participate in the meeting as well!  

Fri, 09/13/2024 - 23:23

Me too!  Thanks 
Profile picture for user mmaddalina
Mark Maddalina
Principal, Sustainable Design Director
SWBR
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 00:24

I would love to join the call. Please add my name to the list. 

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 12:23

Hi Jiewei,  Thank you for responding to all the interest and being willing to set up a call!  I would like to be included as well, hammmodley@vmdo-dc.com thank you! *Chris Colasanti, I saw info on the Decarbonization Summit in NYC and it looks like a great line-up, wish I was able to make it up from DC for it, but it looks unlikely this year. Will any of it be a available virtually or via recording after?   
Default Avatar
Teresa Jan
Multistudio
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 14:12

Thank you for organiizing it. I would love to join. My email is teresa.jan@multi.studio
Profile picture for user kristy.walson
Kristy M. Walson
Practice Lead | Analytics Department Lead
BranchPattern
LEEDuser Premium Member
2 thumbs up

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 18:06

Please include me in the meeting, as well! kristy.w@branchpattern.com I look forward to this conversation!
Profile picture for user krkh
Kritika Kharbanda
Head of Sustainability (Global)
Henning Larsen Architects
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 20:43

Me too! krkh@henninglarsen.com  
Profile picture for user dfavaretto
Deb Favaretto
Architect & Sustainability Leader
CannonDesign
LEEDuser Premium Member
4 thumbs up

Sat, 09/14/2024 - 23:44

Would love to join too! Dfavaretto@cannondesign.com
Profile picture for user luke.leung
Luke Leung
Principal
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Sun, 09/15/2024 - 01:01

Please also add Ishac.koussa@som.com
Profile picture for user luke.leung
Luke Leung
Principal
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Sun, 09/15/2024 - 18:06

Also: nicholas.chan@som.com Shona.odea@som.com
Profile picture for user bgardes_1
Brendan Gardes
Sustainability Studio Director
Newcomb & Boyd
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Mon, 09/16/2024 - 02:11

I would like to join as well. Thanks! Brendan Gardes, PE, CEM, LEED AP, WELL AP Associate Principal | Sustainability Studio Director BGardes@newcomb-boyd.com Desk: 404.730.8548 Main: 404.730.8400 Atlanta Ι Charleston Ι Jacksonville Ι Raleigh-Durham newcomb-boyd.com [cid:inc2res_b0c1b94c-0aea-4c85-860a-2287aec5f890.png] [cid:nbc2res_2d3ccd2c-d3bc-43ce-8283-01632c33d08d.png] Fr
Profile picture for user jshultz
Justin Shultz
Lead Building Performance Analyst
Page
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Mon, 09/16/2024 - 13:56

Hi Jiewei, I would like to be added too. jshultz@pagethink.com Thank you!
Profile picture for user rriss
Rebecca Riss
Performance Director
OPN Architects
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Mon, 09/16/2024 - 14:17

Hi Jiewei, can you please add me as well? rriss@opnarchitects.com Thank you!
Profile picture for user perickson_1
Paul Erickson
Principal / Building Performance Practice Leader
Affiliated Engineers, Inc (AEI)
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Mon, 09/16/2024 - 14:34

Jiewei, Please add me to the distribution. Thanks. Paul perickson@aeieng.com
Profile picture for user jmlade_2
John Mlade
LFA, RESET ASP, WELL Faculty, LEED Fellow
Wight & Company
LEEDuser Expert
6 thumbs up

Mon, 09/16/2024 - 19:22

Hi Jiewei, Can you please add me, Megan Zack and Zhongdi Chen to the survey link to find a time for this conversation? Thanks! jmlade@wightco.com mzack@wightco.com zchen@wightco.com Thanks, John M
Profile picture for user mcmillenam
Adam McMillen
Director of Sustainability
IMEG
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/17/2024 - 13:48

Please add Alex to the discussion if possible. Alex.p.zuro@imegcorp.com Adam McMillen, PE, CPHC, LEED AP BD+C IMEG | Director of Sustainability [IMEG] 263 Shuman Boulevard | Suite 550 | Naperville, IL 60563 (630) 527-2320 | phone (312) 852-1360 | mobile (630) 527-2321 | fax Adam.M.McMillen@imegcorp.com website | my linkedin | vCard | map | regional news [Twitter][Facebook][LinkedIn] Learn more about us and the IMEG story! This email may contain confidential and/or private information. If you received this email in error please delete and notify sender.
Profile picture for user johnhyde@chap-con.com
John Hyde
Chapman Construction / Design
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/17/2024 - 15:05

Big group and "hot" topic, thanks for organizing Jiewei!! Could you include us in the invite? johnhyde@chap-con.com justinh@chap-con.com
Profile picture for user patrickmurphy
Patrick Murphy
Director of Sustainable Design
Vanderweil Engineers
LEEDuser Premium Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/17/2024 - 17:34

I’ll hop on this bandwagon too, but given the level of interest perhaps we all stop emailing and if/when a meeting is set it’s just announced to the entire Green Commons? I frequently tell our engineers and clients that we need to design our buildings for the climate the building will experience in its lifetime, not the climate we’re already familiar with. We have utilized future-looking weather files a few ways on projects, such as to show the longer term impact on air-source heat pump operation and to inform energy conservation measure decisions (e.g. investing in strategies that reduce cooling energy may appear better when looking at future climate). We have tried a few ways to estimate peak ambient temperature conditions for sizing HVAC equipment, and are interested to see if there is any overlap with what others are doing. Would also love to discuss best practices for anticipating future precipitation given increased moisture content in atmosphere; the strategies we’ve used have had mixed results. Patrick Murphy, PE, LEED AP BD+C, CPHC Principal | Director of Sustainable Design R.G. Vanderweil Engineers, LLP T 617.956.4804 | C 607.621.8047 www.vanderweil.com [cid:image001.gif@01DB0905.B637FA90] [cid:image002.gif@01DB0905.B637FA90] [cid:image003.gif@01DB0905.B637FA90] [cid:image004.jpg@01DB0905.B637FA90] From: J
Profile picture for user vikram.sami
Vikram Sami
Director of Building Performance
Olson Kundig
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/17/2024 - 17:58

This may be a topic for the meeting, but I would caution designing your systems day one for a future climate. For instance, when you look at the Climate projections for King County - there is a subtle change between the twenty year sets See below from a singly family rez basic energy model. There is a change from heating dominated to a balanced heating-cooling load. However, if you design your mechanical system day one to tackle the climate 80 - 100 years in the future, you have a couple of issues
  1. It may not be relevant in today's climate 
  2. Mechanical systems have a lifespan of around 20 years - so you will get a chance to update it as the climate does change. 
Look forward to the discussion.    -V
Profile picture for user candacepearson
Candace Pearson
Project Delivery and Contracts Consultant
LEEDuser, BuildingGreen Inc.
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/17/2024 - 18:13

Wow, another very hot topic and thank you to Jiewei for offerring to organize a call. Lots of planning is now happening in the background. In the meantime, if you would like to be a part of this discussion, please do so in this spreadsheet so that we don't continue to flood peoples' inboxes.  Thoughts or ideas to share are still welcome on this thread.  Thanks!  
Profile picture for user candacepearson
Candace Pearson
Project Delivery and Contracts Consultant
LEEDuser, BuildingGreen Inc.
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/24/2024 - 14:09

Those who responded to Jiewei or this thread on future weather files just received a calendar invite. If you would also like to join us, the call will be Monday, September 30th at 2pm ET. Zoom details below. We will post the recording as well.  Topic: Future weather file share out: BG peer networks
Time: Sep 30, 2024 02:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88426586311?pwd=odqg583dvGzmyBxCPMKu83Q68baIDD.1 Meeting ID: 884 2658 6311
Passcode: 764959 --- One tap mobile
+19292056099,,88426586311#,,,,*764959# US (New York)
+13017158592,,88426586311#,,,,*764959# US (Washington DC)
Profile picture for user b2delmonte
Betsy del Monte
Consultant
Cameron MacAllister Group
LEEDuser Basic Member
0 thumbs up

Tue, 09/24/2024 - 16:14

About this meeting, I have been in conversations with some folks at NOAA who are also researching the use of TMY data, especially by architects. Is there any connection between this conversation and them? If not, is it appropriate for me to send this to them? They are really trying to learn more about how their TMY data can be used. Betsy On Tue, Sep 24, 2024 at 10:13 AM Candace Pearson wrote:

Add new comment

To post a comment, you need to register for a LEEDuser Basic membership (free) or login to your existing profile.