Forum discussion

Electrification and the Falcon Curve

Imagine folks have seen this, but thought it was worth bringing up: this study which shows the great need to build new renewable infrastructure to support electrification.

I've been in a few discussions with folks where we've discussed how electrification is objectively a good goal, but are we passing carbon from one source to another? It's lovely to be typing this in the PNW on a machine drawing energy from hydropower, but not every area has as clean a grid. 

A thing that really stood out to me (and to the researchers) was the shift in peak energy demand from summer to winter (they map it as a "Falcon Curve" on a chart.) This curve is a really nice visual, though, that I think is something the average person (or building owner) can get.

All this to say, seems like a great arrow in the quiver of reasons on-site renewable energy generation should be a baked-in part of construction and design discussions. That being said, feels like dry riverbeds in the Sun Belt and across Europe would be catalysts for rainwater/graywater collection and use, but feels like that's also missing from the major narrative out there... alas...

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Thu, 08/18/2022 - 00:09

Jay,
Thanks for forwarding the study.  I hadn't seen it but looks fascinating at a glance!  I have been thinking about this for a while now....it feels like seasonal mismatch will eventually be a huge challenge due to the parallel trends of electrification and shifting to mostly solar+wind.  With no viable long term energy storage solution even close to commercialization at scale, this creates a dilemma where our only sustainable option is overbuild/curtailment of renewables.  I feel like buildings could play a role here to reduce the needed overbuild through better winterization.  We should be thinking about this now since the projects we are currently working on will have to deal with this future grid condition before they are likely to see a significant renovation.  Eventually, utility costs will reflect this new reality with higher winter time rates.

Thu, 08/18/2022 - 17:56

This is something I've been thinking about also. Was literally just skimming an article peripherally on this topic, on nuclear plants in the US shutting down and shifting loads to natural-gas plants (like what happened after the Indian Point nuclear plant outside New York City closed last year and almost 90% of downstate energy came from fossil fuels, a jump from 77% in 2020, when both of Indian Point’s reactors were operating.) Short of the massive build we need of renewables and embracing curtailment / hydrogen creation for fuel cells, this article (The climate crisis casts nuclear energy in a new light) essentially argues that the traditional 'close all the nuclear plants' approach is something that should probably be evaluated more on a case-by-case basis until there are cleaner resources online to shift loads onto.  The heating problem is really viewed as a big hurdle to electrification here in climate zone 5A - I would say by the broader engineering community even (not just those thinking about ducks and falcons). Building our enclosures more like thermal carafes and less like glass coffee pots seems like the logical first step.

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