Concerns about the proposed transition between V3 & V4

Currently, the proposal is to have a very long uptake period for V4: June 2013 for the ballot and end-of-2013/early-2014 for the launch. I understand that early-to-mid 2015 is being talked about as the sunset for V3. I can understand the idea to have a ‘soft start,’ where more and more people are expected to move to the V4 system, resulting in a phase-out of the V3 system. However, I think that having such a long overlap will be very confusing for the market and will prolong the time where people have to keep two different rating systems in their heads simultaneously. While the hoped-for scenario might happen, what I think actually WILL happen is that a relatively small fraction of the market (maybe 15-20 percent of the current users, representing 3-4 percent of the market overall) will take up V4, while the vast majority of the market continues to cling to V3 as long as it can. When the final deadline for adopting V4 looms, there will be a giant pulse of V3 buildings registering at the last second, which will enable people to continue using it for years into the future. This behavior has been exhibited EVERY time there has been a major transition, whether it's a LEED version change or modifications to the AP exam. There is no evidence that this time around it will be any different. Under this likely scenario, we easily could see projects certifying to V3 as late as 2018, which I don’t think will support USGBC’s aims for market transformation. An alternative way forward will be proposed in the next post...