Predictive Weather Files

November 17, 2021

Hello all,

I need future weather files for a project. We are looking at three years, 2050, 2075, and 2095 using two climate change scenarios, low emissions, and high emissions. I have seen ARUP's Weathershift site that uses RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Are we assuming that 2.6 is not achievable? I would have used this as a low emissions scenario. However, I am attaching an image from IPCC's "Climate Change 2021 the Physical Science Basis" and this is probably true since we would have to be reducing emissions for 1.9 and 2.6 already (and mild results at COP26).

My question to the group: Do you have a preferred site to obtain predictive weather files that can be used for climate analysis and energy modeling (EPW) under different scenarios and dates (e.g. 2050, 2075, and 2095, with 4.5 and 8.5). If I bought these from Weathershift I would need six files and spend a significant amount of money.

Any suggestions would be most welcome.

Thank you!

Pablo

https://acds.csiro.au/future-climate-predictive-weather

Post a reply

Andrée Iffrig

Sustainability Strategist

Associated Engineering

LEEDuser Basic Member

2 thumbs up

Wed, 11/17/2021 - 17:24

Pablo, you could start with NOAA files; if this link doesn't provide what you need, write NOAA and ask for a "cheap" or free source of reliable data. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/cm2-global-coupled-climate Regarding RCP2.6 - my sources maintain this is a pipe dream, and even RCP4.5 is unattainable. We are beyond RCP4.5 at this stage. I choose RCP8.5 for my work. Cheers, Andree

Wed, 11/17/2021 - 18:38

Thank you Andree I will contact them. Best, Pablo Pablo La Roche Ph.D. LEED AP BD+C Principal Sustainable Design Lead +1 213 633 1194 Direct |+1 213 631 6203 Cell [cid:image001.png@01D7DB9F.380195F0]

Justin Schwartzhoff

Architect & Embodied Carbon Specialist

LMN Architects

LEEDuser Basic Member

0 thumbs up

Wed, 11/17/2021 - 22:13

Pablo, I was hoping to offer a solution here, as I remember doing this with EPWs a few years back using the Climate Change World Weather Generator (https://energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/). Unfortunately, the data for this is from an earlier IPCC report - AR4 (2007). So the best I can offer now are some threads to pull. Perhaps they have an updated system that hasn't been published. Quite a bit deeper down the rabbit hole - for the datascience folks here, I also found a script modifies EPWs using the R language:
https://www.researchgate.net/project/epwshiftr-Create-Future-EnergyPlus-Weather-Files-using-CMIP6-Data I don't imagine that this is the correct route for most of us, but maybe someone in here will find a good use for this.